MED 2050 (THE MEDITERRANEAN BY 2050) A foresight by Plan Bleu

MED 2050 (THE MEDITERRANEAN BY 2050)

A foresight by Plan Bleu

The Mediterranean stands at the threshold of profound change. The pressures bearing down on its ecosystems—from rising temperatures and urbanization to strained geopolitics and economic instability—are converging into a moment of reckoning. But amid these challenges, Plan Bleu has stepped forward with a bold vision for navigating the region’s uncertain future. Their flagship foresight initiative, MED 2050, maps out potential pathways for resilience and renewal, not just for the sea, but for the diverse communities who call its shores home.

Established in 1977 under the Mediterranean Action Plan of UNEP, Plan Bleu has long served as a beacon for sustainable policy thinking across the region. The MED 2050 exercise, launched in response to the mounting threats outlined by the Barcelona Convention countries, is the third major foresight effort of its kind, building on lessons learned from similar undertakings in 1989 and 2005. But unlike previous editions, this one is defined by both its scope and urgency.

Rather than offering a single prediction, MED 2050 explores a range of futures—some troubling, others inspiring. It draws from the contributions of over 100 experts across 20 countries, weaving together scientific insights, stakeholder visions, and scenario-building techniques to reflect the region’s complexity. The Mediterranean’s future is considered through a systemic lens, tying together climate dynamics, ecological transformations, economic shifts, societal trends, technological innovation, and modes of governance.

The report’s conclusions are sobering. If current trends persist, the Mediterranean marine ecosystem will face dramatic transformation by mid-century, with degraded conditions threatening not just biodiversity but the liveability of coastal regions. Internal factors like unchecked urban development and pollution are compounded by external pressures such as global climate change and economic shocks—forces the region is ill-equipped to control alone.

But the narrative is not all bleak. MED 2050 emphasizes that there’s still ample room for action. Cooperation and innovation can turn the Mediterranean into a living laboratory of ecological transition—where nature-based solutions, renewable energy, agroecology, and circular economy models drive progress. The region’s assets, from its cultural diversity to its youthful populations in the South, offer hope for adaptive capacity and transformation.

What stands out most in the report is the call for breakthrough solutions—a deliberate shift away from incrementalism toward bold, coordinated strategies. These include new forms of governance, better information systems, incentive structures, and stronger international partnerships. MED 2050 insists that the region must commit to forward-thinking policies not just to avoid collapse, but to proactively design a more just and sustainable Mediterranean.

Looking ahead, Plan Bleu will deepen its work by focusing on subregional transitions—crafting concrete trajectories tailored to local contexts. By doing so, it hopes to galvanize the Mediterranean as a model for ecodevelopment and sea protection, one that could inspire similar transformations across the globe.

It’s not just about predicting the future—it’s about shaping it. And Plan Bleu’s MED 2050 offers a guidebook for doing so with courage, clarity, and collective intelligence.

Read the full report here

Read the summary of the report here

https://planbleu.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/MED-2050-REPORT-EN.pdf

https://planbleu.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/RESUME-MED-2050-EN.pdf